When geopolitics meets lubrication: Why are high base oil prices here to stay

When geopolitics meets lubrication: Why are high base oil prices here to stay

Base oil prices are not just high.
They have settled at a structurally elevated level.

Since Q2 2022, the market has not returned to previous norms. While crude oil has been volatile, base oil and consequently cylinder and system oil have remained persistently expensive.

This is not a temporary imbalance.

Geopolitics is now part of lubrication

The 2022 price spike followed a sudden geopolitical shift: disrupted supply chains, rerouted trade flows, and reduced access to key suppliers.

What we are seeing now is more structural.

Tensions in the Middle East and the risk around the Strait of Hormuz highlight how exposed lubricant supply chains are. Hormuz is not only a crude chokepoint; it is a key route for refined products and base oils.

If disrupted, the effects extend beyond fuel:

Tighter base oil availability
Higher freight and insurance costs
Longer, less predictable lead times
Regional imbalances, particularly in Europe and Asia

In short: lubrication becomes a supply-chain risk not just an operational cost

Why prices stay high even when crude softens

Refinery economics matter.

With strong crack spreads, refineries prioritize higher-margin products such as diesel and gasoline. Base oil, with lower turnover, is deprioritized.

This results in:

Less focus on base oil production
Lower inventories
Higher sensitivity to disruption

Even as crude prices fluctuate, base oil remains supported by margins and limited production focus.

The implication is clear: near to mid-term base oil and therefore cylinder oil prices are likely to stay elevated.

Line graphic element
Large ship from above with small ship by the side

Rethinking what others call “waste”

What this means for ship operators

The impact is already visible:

Higher lubrication costs
Increased exposure to supply disruptions
More complex bunkering logistics
Greater dependence on external supply

This is no longer just a cost topic.
It is an operational consideration.

 

Rethinking what others call “waste”

In this context, treating drained oil from 2-stroke engines as waste is increasingly difficult to justify.

Oil from the scavenge air receiver and piston rod stuffing box is an underutilized resource. When collected, cleaned, and reused, it can:

Reduce reliance on fresh cylinder oil
Lower overall lubrication cost
Improve onboard supply resilience – most will only need to bunker additives once per year.
Reduce CO₂ linked to production and logistics

In practical terms, a significant part of the base oil demand can be covered onboard.

 

 

A shift in mindset

The takeaway is not only that prices are high.

It is that the market structure has changed.

Geopolitics, supply chain fragility, and refinery priorities are aligning in one direction:

Lubrication is becoming a strategic parameter in vessel operation.

 

Final thought

In an uncertain supply environment, the key question is shifting:

From: How do we buy lubricants cheaper?
To: How do we reduce dependence on external supply and create flexibility in when and where we bunker?

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Stuffing Box Cleaner (SBC)

Cleaning the stuffing box drain pipe, and pumping the collected oil to be re-cycled

Stuffing Box Container seen from above on ship

Common Drain Cleaner (CDC)

Auger screw mounted in common drain line, effectively moving hard sludge and oil from each individual cylinder to the scavenge air drain tank

Automatic Drain Cleaning System part seen from below

Individual Drain Cleaner (IDC)

Mounted on each cylinder unit, continuously removing sludge and oil from under-piston space. Keeping drain lines clean and ensuring fast and correct Scrape Down Sampling

Automatic Drain Cleaning System seen from the side

Sludge Collecting Unit (SCU)

Lube Oil Reuse System (LRS)

ShipCore's Lube Oil Reuse System

Automatic Drain Cleaning System (ADCS)